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Model type: Explanatory model
Scope: Individual and organizational decision-making
Status: Stable draft
version: v0.1
last_updated: 2026-01-14
This model explains why many decisions fail not because of poor execution, but because they are made against an implicit and unexamined measurement scale.
It proposes that meaningful decisions must be understood backwards: from order and identity down to incentives and exploration. The model distinguishes two fundamentally different phases of decision-making: one in which direction is unknown and reversibility is required, and one in which direction is known and commitment becomes necessary.
Before any meaningful action, a prior question must be answered:
By what standard is this decision being evaluated?
Most decision failures originate not from wrong choices, but from implicit measurement scales that were never made explicit: speed, visibility, control, recognition, growth, or effort.
As long as the scale remains implicit, actions are misaligned by design.
Decisions are often treated as forward processes:
explore → decide → structure
In reality, causality runs in the opposite direction.
The effective causal order is:
Order → Identity → Incentives → Exploration → Decision
Attempting to change behavior without addressing identity or order results in friction rather than progress.
When direction is unclear, the system must remain flexible.
Characteristics of this phase:
Premature structure hardens wrong paths.
In this phase, strong identities and rigid order reduce learning and lock in errors.
Once direction becomes clear, the logic reverses.
The effective sequence becomes:
Incentives change first
What is rewarded or penalized shifts.
Identity stabilizes through repetition
Self-understanding follows experienced consistency.
Order emerges last
Structures consolidate what already works.
Order succeeds only when it arrives last.
If order is imposed before incentives and identity align, it is resisted or circumvented.
When the sequence is violated, characteristic failure patterns appear:
Order before identity
→ coercion, resistance, rule circumvention
Identity before incentives
→ ideology, frustration, moral fatigue
Incentives without direction
→ activity without progress, actionism
Exploration without reversibility
→ early lock-in, path dependency
These failures are structural, not personal.
The model aligns with observable behavior across domains:
This explains why:
The model applies across scales:
The causal logic remains invariant; only the concrete expressions differ.
Uncertainty requires reversibility.
Clarity requires consequence.
Condensed:
Keep options open while learning.
Turn incentives once direction is clear.
Let identity stabilize.
Harvest order.
This is an explanatory model.
It does not prescribe values or outcomes. It explains why certain decision sequences reliably produce coherence, while others generate friction and instability.
Wende, A. (2026).
An Explanatory Model of Direction, Incentives, Identity, and Order: Why Sustainable Decisions Must Be Read Backwards.
Exploratory Notes, systemic-effect.org. Version v0.1.
https://systemic-effect.org/exploratory-notes/direction-incentives-identity-order/v0.1
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Exploratory Notes