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This section contains exploratory notes on the calibration of judgment, expectation fidelity, and strategic decision-making under uncertainty.
The Mental Meter is not a theory of intelligence or morality.
It is a reference framework for testing whether expectations are sufficiently calibrated to justify action.
The notes are intentionally versioned.
Each version represents a stable thinking state at a specific point in time.
Older versions are not deprecated unless explicitly stated.
They remain valid within their original context and may be cited independently.
The purpose of this structure is transparency of conceptual development, not replacement or supersession.
v0.2 (2026-04-23)
Stronger distinction between intelligence and calibration, explicit intersubjective verification, predictive accuracy emphasized as primary hard test, self-correction speed added, and stronger formalization of the Calibration Quality Standard.
→ v0.2
v0.1 (2026-04-19)
Initial formulation of the Mental Meter as a calibration framework for judgment, expectation fidelity, and strategic reality.
→ v0.1
This note addresses the structural calibration of judgment (i.e. whether goals, means, costs, time horizons, and expected outcomes are sufficiently aligned with reality).
It focuses on:
A complementary future note may address the broader problem of systemic calibration under complexity (multi-scale systems, institutional calibration, and civilization-level decision structures).